US Market News: The US Census Bureau released the June 2024 retail and food services sales data on Tuesday, July 16th, 2024. US Census data showed a slight decline of 0.2% compared to May. However, excluding automobile sales, retail sales actually increased by 0.2%, suggesting that consumer spending remains resilient despite rising interest rates and inflation concerns.
Key Points of the US Census Bureau Retail Sales Data:
- Headline Figure: Advance estimates of US Census retail and food services sales for May 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $703.1 billion, an increase of 0.1 percent (±0.4 percent)* from the previous month, and 2.3 percent (±0.5 percent) above May 2023.
- US Census data Retail Trade Sales: Retail trade sales were up 0.2 percent (±0.4 percent)* from April 2024 and 2.0 percent (±0.5 percent) above last year.
- Nonstore Retailers: Nonstore retailers (mostly e-commerce) saw a significant increase of 6.8 percent (±1.4 percent) from last year.
- Food Services and Drinking Places: This sector experienced a notable increase of 3.8 percent (±2.3 percent) from May 2023.
US Census June Retail Sales Data Impact on Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow:
The initial market reaction to the US Census retail sales data was mixed. Here’s a breakdown of the potential impact of US Census June Retail Sales Data on each index:
- S&P 500: As a broad market index, the S&P 500 reflects the overall economic health. The slight decline in retail sales could put some downward pressure on the index. However, the increase in core retail sales (excluding autos) indicates sustained consumer spending, which could offset the negative impact.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: The Dow is heavily influenced by industrial companies, which may not be directly impacted by retail sales. However, consumer spending trends can indirectly affect the broader economy, potentially influencing the Dow’s performance. The initial positive reaction in Dow futures suggests that investors might be focusing on the resilience of consumer spending despite economic challenges.
- Nasdaq Composite: The Nasdaq is heavily weighted towards technology companies, which are not as directly tied to retail sales as other sectors. However, the overall economic outlook and consumer sentiment can indirectly influence technology stocks. The slight dip in Nasdaq futures could be attributed to concerns about the overall economic slowdown reflected in the headline retail sales figure.
Overall:
The US Census June 2024 retail sales data presents a mixed picture of consumer spending. While the headline figure showed a modest increase, the growth in core retail sales and specific sectors like nonstore retailers and food services indicates some resilience in consumer spending. Investors are likely to continue monitoring various economic indicators, including inflation, employment data, and corporate earnings, alongside the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions, to gain a clearer understanding of the overall economic landscape and its potential impact on the financial markets.